People always attempted to raise the curtain of the future and foresee the course of the events. At the basis of the interest in political predictions lie sufficiently strong vital motives. The practice of control of sociopolitical processes confirms: the higher the prognostication level, the more effective, more successful planning, and management are. For the organs of political management to have scientifically substantiated forecasts is to foresee the motion of the course of political events.
Prognosis covers all spheres of the vital activities of people. The political prediction is one of the important directions of the prognostication of social development as an object of which comes out the politics (internal and external), and one of the important directions of the prediction of social development, and the object of knowledge of the possible states of political events, phenomena, and processes.
The increased interest in a democracy which began at the end of the 20th century, and continued to the beginning of the new century was caused, first of all, by the mass tendency of the countries, liberated from authoritarianism, to search for a more advanced form of administration.
In the book by Nassim Taleb “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable”, the author delivers a new concept of identifying unpredictable events that happen once in a while, and many events in the contemporary world can be related to this term. As a basic example for analysis of political prediction in general, and the theory of the black swan in particular, the Chinese politics was taken to be analyzed, providing facts that could or could not be pointers to the economical development in China being a black swan, and whether there are possibilities for a crisis based on the same theory. This assessment of the points mentioned is formed in a PowerPoint presentation format which is accompanied by this introduction.
“China – The World Fact Book.” Central Intelligence Agency. 2008. Web.
“China Black Swans & Integrating The Black Swan.” Intent Blog. 2007. Web.
Perry, Elizabeth J. “Studying Chinese Politics: Farewell to Revolution?” The China Journal 57 (2007): 1-22.
Taleb, Nassim N. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Melbourne: Allen Lane, 2007.
Tubilewicz, Czeslaw, ed. Critical Issues in Contemporary China. Abingdon: Routledge, 2006.